MOIA’s (Unrealistic) Schedule For Their Own Autonomous Mobility Service

On September 9, 2025, Volkswagen presented a schedule for the next steps in the introduction of MOIA robotaxis with Mobileye Drive at the Volkswagen Group Product & Tech Investor and Analyst Update 2025. And it looks quite unrealistic. Here is slide number 52:

• Q3 2026: Initial commercial launch with safety drivers in the US;
• Q4 2026: Launch with Uber in LA (closed user group), transition to fully driverless vehicles;
• Q3 2027: Commercial launch of more than 500 autonomous vehicles with Uber in LA, expansion to more than 1,000 autonomous vehicles in other cities.

In the weeks following the presentation of the ID.Buzz AV, which is to serve as the vehicle platform for the MOIA robotaxi service, I already expressed doubts about the aggressive timeline, including here and with detailed explanations here.

Even among relevant expert circles, this schedule is considered completely unrealistic. And the statements reflect the same arguments I have already raised here. Far too few public sightings of MOIA vehicles, too few tests with real passengers, too little interaction with real traffic scenarios, too little data for the regulatory authorities, etc. Considering that each of the at least four phases (testing with safety drivers without passengers, then with passengers, then driverless testing without safety drivers, then with passengers…) takes around 1-2 years, we are talking about a schedule that does not see MOIA’s first driverless robotaxi service before 2030.

In other words, this slide represents completely unrealistic wishful thinking.

This article was also published in German.