Unexpected Effects of Robotaxis: Uber and Lyft are also Growing

Driverless robotaxis are now part of everyday life in a dozen cities and regions in the US and China, and they are having a surprising effect on ridesharing services. Instead of cannibalizing them, both Uber and Lyft are growing five times faster in US cities with robotaxi fleets than in other regions.

At the shareholders’/investors’ meeting in light of the figures for the second quarter of 2025, Lyft CEO John David Risher explained the effect of robotaxis on the market:

The first thing to say, whenever you think about AV is you have to think about them as a massive TAM (total addressable market) expander for rideshare. And the reason I’m so confident in this is we see the data. We see the data. So for example, in the markets where [indiscernible] is in the United States, in the markets where AVs are operational, and these are the San Franciscos and LAs and Phoenixes of the United States, we are seeing growth, industry growth I’m talking about, that is 5x larger, 5x larger than what you’re seeing in other top markets, 5x larger.

Uber (and later Lyft) were already seen as TAM expanders. In its investor pitches in 2009, Uber had quoted figures for the taxi market in San Francisco at $125 million per year; a few years later, Uber had generated more than $500 million per year in that city alone.

Currently, Uber has a market share of just over 50% in San Francisco, Waymo has 27%, and Lyft has 21%. Uber’s market share fell from 66% to around 55% by the end of 2024. Lyft’s market share fell from 34% to around 22% by the end of 2024. Waymo’s prices are 31% higher than Uber’s and 41% higher than Lyft’s. At certain times of the day with flexible price increases, they are even significantly higher.

This means that the more lucrative part of the market is being served rather than the masses, and this has an impact on rideshare drivers. In 2024, the number of people in San Francisco working for “taxi and limousine service” companies rose by 7% compared to the previous year. Total compensation in the industry rose by 14%.

Data from the city indicates that the number of trips taken in conventional taxis is roughly the same as last year. Public transportation has also not been affected. The group of residents who have now switched to Waymo are using their private cars less often and have not used public transportation services in the past anyway.

This article was also published in German.