The resistance of traditional car manufacturers to the shift away from combustion engines to electric cars was not only suspected, but clearly visible. The most recent measure of resistance was the combustion engine phase-out, which German manufacturers of oil-powered cars pushed through in the EU.
A joint study by several universities, published in ScienceDirekt, clearly shows how German, American, and Japanese manufacturers have proceeded and are still proceeding in their resistance. In the study entitled “The temporal evolution of resistance strategies during low-carbon transitions: Revealing the industry playbook of US, German, and Japanese automakers in the unfolding electric vehicle transition (1990–2025),” the authors divide the period under review from 1990 to 2025 into five phases of resistance for each country:
| Phase | Resistance Strategies |
|---|---|
| 1. Inaction | Information strategy (e.g. deny the problem, attack science, highlight uncertainties) |
| 2. Incremental Innovation | a) Framing strategies (e.g. claim that a problem is not so bad or can be addressed incrementally) b) Organised pressure strategies (e.g. create a ‘closed industry front’) |
| 3. Hedging | a) Framing strategies (e.g. claim that policies are not needed, radical solutions are too expensive), b) Lobbying strategies to prevent/shape legislation c) Confrontational strategies (e.g. litigate against policies) d) Innovation strategies (including radical) |
| 4. Diversification | a) Innovation strategies b) Economic positioning strategies (e.g. invest in factories, products) c) Framing strategies (e.g. claim that the speed and cost of change is too high) d) Lobbying (e.g. to weaken targets and ask for policy support) |
| 5. Full Reorientation | a) Innovation strategies b) Economic positioning strategies |
The authors arrived at the following periods for the individual countries:
USA
Period 1 (1970–1988): The beginnings of climate science and corporate inaction in all three countries.
Period 2 (1988–1997): Denial and contestation.
Period 3 (1997–2003): Preliminary but failed realignment.
Period 4 (2003–2016): Hedging with multiple technologies.
Period 5 (2016–2025): Realignment of the BEV and political fluctuations.
Germany
Period 2 (1983–1995): Voluntary commitments in response to initial climate pressures.
Period 3 (1995–2007): Hedging strategies in response to climate policy measures.
Period 4 (2007–2015): Further hedging amid increasing political pressure.
Period 5 (2015–2025): Diversification of electric vehicles in rapidly changing political and economic contexts.
The trigger for the start of the fifth period in Germany was, of course, the diesel scandal, which damaged the entire industry.
Japan
Phase 2 (1990–1997): Experimentation with different electrification paths.
Period 3 (1997–2009): Accelerated shift toward hybrid vehicles.
Period 4 (2009–2022): Resistance to BEVs and defense of HEVs.
Period 5 (2022–2025): Serious but hesitant and slow diversification toward BEVs while hedging bets.
Conclusion
The authors of the study conclude that the case studies and comparative analyses show that established automobile manufacturers in the US, Germany, and Japan have long resisted and delayed the transition to low-carbon battery electric vehicles by employing a variety of resistance strategies, including information campaigns, framing, lobbying, confrontation, and organized pressure. The prevalence of different types of resistance strategies varied, with US automakers tending to use openly antagonistic strategies (e.g., scientific challenge, litigation), while German and Japanese companies tended to rely on lobbying, consultations, and revolving door effects.
The authors find it noteworthy that in all three cases, the automakers continued to rely on resistance strategies in the fifth phase—even though they were simultaneously undertaking significant diversification efforts and making large investments in electric car factories and supply chains. In later phases, the focus of resistance strategies shifted from rejecting the direction of change to slowing down change.
This article was also published in German.
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