At the National Governors Association Summer Meeting Tesla-CEO Elon Musk answered question from Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval on the closing plenary session. Musk said, that because of the exponential curve that underlies the adoption of electric vehicles, there is a huge difference between what’s to be expected in five years and in ten years.
He surprised the audience with his expectation, that in ten years half of all cars produced in the US will be electric, and all cars in production autonomous. If you consider the life-cycle of a car of 10 to 15 years, then this will represent one fifteenth of all cars. In 20 years all cars will be replaced by autonomous electric vehicles, all without a steering wheel. Owning a manual car will be like owning a horse today.
He added that China is leading electrification, far ahead of the US. The reason is China’s aggressive position on pro-electrification, with the government heavily supporting it. The goals are so aggressive that all traditional car manufacturers (not Tesla) have lobbied the government to loosen the goals, because most car manufacturers don’t have any electric vehicles in their offering.
Here is the full closing plenary with Elon Musk:
This article has also been published in German.