According to a study of investment bank UBS, 60 percent of all autonomous cars in 2030 will be using technology developed by Waymo, as reported by the Financial Times. This forecast is based on a series of interviews conducted by UBS with autonomous car experts.
UBS estimates that by 2030 twelve percent of all cars – a total of 26 million – will be sold annually to robotaxi fleets, with a market size totaling 2.8 trillion dollars.Only few of today’s car manufacturers will be having a significant market share with their own technology. UBS names Daimler and General Motors among others.
Waymo / Google has five years of advantage to all other vendors as they started focusing on self-driving technology very early on. The biggest revenue generator will be the booking system and the services offered for passengers during a ride, while other services such as actually building the car or navigation systems will play a lesser role.
Companies that are not partnering with companies such as Waymo will disappear, so UBS. Even car manufacturers who partner with Waymo will see their brands dissolve, as we have already predicted for Jaguar.
According to UBS-analysts the majority of today’s automotive companies won’t exist in 2030.
This article has also been published in German.