With three fleets of robotaxis already operating in the U.S., serving San Francisco and Phoenix in initial approaches, the deployment of more robotaxis is getting closer. And that’s inspiring the first analysts and consulting firms to make cost calculations for cities and regions. The consulting firm McKinsey published a study on the expected costs of robotaxis and their deployment, their estimated mileage and other factors.
McKinsey has developed a detailed mobility market model that incorporates numerous modes of transportation and uses data from more than 2,800 cities and rural areas in more than 110 countries. The model forecasts miles traveled, light vehicle sales, installed base, and environmental impact.
McKinsey estimates that from 2030, the costs of robotaxis will be so low that pooled vehicles will be lower than or equal to those of public transport. In doing so, McKinsey gives a possible cost range that even for individually used, i.e., non-shared, robotaxis comes within a range of the cost of today’s private cars. Similar calculations have already been made in other studies, which arrive at similar figures.
The study also looks at the cost of autonomous cars, which will be higher than non-autonomous cars because of the sensors and computers required. However, due to the higher expected utilization and mileage of robotaxis, McKinsey does not consider this to be an influencing factor.
Click here for the McKinsey study with more analysis and breakdowns.
This article was also published in German.