This week, the International Motor Show, or IAA for short, is taking place in Munich. In recent years, IAA Mobility 2025 has been marked by the changes taking place in the automotive industry. And this year is no different. Fourteen Chinese manufacturers are facing off against ten German manufacturers. And the Chinese are just beginning to flood the European market with their electric cars, in all price categories.
Even before the event, there had been a string of bad news from German manufacturers, whose profits have plummeted across the board. But they are still doing too well, and there is still no perceived need to take drastic steps to seriously embrace electric mobility and autonomous driving. People still don’t believe in it. Manufacturers will first have to suffer billions in losses over several quarters before they finally make the tough cuts and strategic realignments necessary to compete with the highly agile and competent new competition.
The Contest for Autonomous Driving is Lost For German Automakers
As someone who has experienced autonomous driving firsthand in California, the announcements at the IAA about when test drives would begin in Germany seem ridiculous. In the second half of 2026, Moia, Uber with Mobileye, and this and that company want to start testing on German roads, maybe, possibly. However, no one has yet gone through the entire approval process, the authorities have little experience with it, bureaucracy is rearing its head, and without drivers, there will be no vehicles from German manufacturers in operation on German roads before 2030. Why this is the case can be found here.
And that’s after Waymo has been driving without drivers since 2018. By the way, there’s a very informative documentary series on this topic here.
Rollercoaster of Emotions
The small special supplement published by German Automobilwoche for the 2025 IAA provides a descriptive picture of this rollercoaster ride of emotions. The headlines speak volumes.
“The strength of German car brands is recognized worldwide,” they assure us, adding that “the race is not yet lost.” Has someone already expressed doubts and suggested that they are “disconnected from the future”? Really? By continuing to rely on combustion engines? “We have big plans!” is meant to be encouraging, because they are certain that “Europe is not lagging behind” and that “new conditions” prevail. Yes, China is putting pressure on us. Fortunately, the article concludes with an advertisement from a consulting firm that boasts: “We help companies maintain their leading position in the market.”
The real situation?
What is the real situation? You just have to ask yourself the following questions:
1: Have German manufacturers become more humble since the diesel scandal?
No! I asked this question to every delegation from Germany that came to visit me in Silicon Valley, and the answer was always a resounding no!
2: Have they learned their lesson and understood that they need to promote e-mobility?
No! They have even stopped producing batteries again. Late, much too late, they are now entering the market with electric cars that were designed as electric cars. New class, EQ something, and instead of ID… they are falling back on traditional names like Golf. That’s the extent of their innovation.
3: Are you contributing to the emission limits?
Nein, sie versuchen sie sogar zu sabotieren. Seit Jahren sind die gesetzlich zu senkenden Grenzwerte bekannt, und auch, dass Verbrenner vor dem Aus stehen, doch nach wie vor wird das absurde Thema Technologieoffenheit mit Nicht nur das, die Vorstände unter Federführung von Mercedes-Benz Chef Ola Källenius verfasst sogar einen Brandbrief. gegen das Verbrenneraus. “Man spielt damit der Konkurrenz in die Hände.” Die Konkurrenz, die seit Jahren Elektromobilität ernst nimmt. Gleichzeitig wirft man der EU fehlenden “Realitätssinn” vor, während die wahre Realität längst den Tipping Point zur Elektromobilität erreicht hat und Peak Oil überschritten wurde.
And they convince their own politicians that openness to technology is the only way forward. Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder constantly posts about this on LinkedIn. Why not horses? Because there are good German jobs behind them, such as stable owners, veterinarians, riding instructors, horse breeders, cobblers for riding boots, farmers who grow oats, and where are we supposed to get all the horse manure for fertilizing if there are no more horses? Food security is at risk. Horses perfectly represent our performance and expertise! Say YES to technological openness with the Trab-in Hybrid.
4: Are they leaders in e-mobility?
No!
5: Are they leaders in autonomous driving?
No! They are far behind and have no interest in doing so. I have already written about this several times, such as here in Part 1 and Part 2 and most recently about Moia.
6: Have we praised our automotive industry enough?
OH HELL YES! We kissed their asses.
7: Do you blame yourself because your results and sales are declining?
No! It’s the customers’ fault for not buying their fantastic cars. No wonder, when manufacturers have been sowing doubts about electric mobility for years, talking badly about technologies and instead constantly talking about “technological openness.”
8: Are we therefore being unfair to “our” automotive industry by no longer praising it?
No, they deserve it. They ignored the trends for years, blocked everything, boycotted everything, and now they come crying to politicians, and auto journalists support them in this?
The Eternal Nitpicking
We would actually expect German manufacturers to be leading the way, rather than making some minor improvement to an insignificant part and then patting themselves on the back. We would expect bold and pioneering steps in their own battery technologies and manufacturing, a wide range of electric cars at different price points, and not just the next generation of heavy vehicles. Let’s not forget the associated infrastructure, which can be very frustrating. Charging station networks with dozens of different apps and fancy stations are not helpful. Manufacturers still don’t see this as their problem. They are still thinking in terms of the old gas station model.
When it comes to autonomous driving, we would also like to see at least a few convincing efforts, but nothing is happening.
And so everything remains trivial, for which one then receives praise from German journalists, who do not understand why their readership is so enthusiastic about it.
Summa Summarum
This IAA is a swan song for the domestic automotive industry. The announcements are disappointing, the ambitions low, the threat still not taken seriously, people still feel superior, yet it sounds as if everyone is walking through the forest with their fingers in their ears, singing LALALALA loudly so they don’t have to hear or see the dangers lurking in the dark forest.
This article was also published in German.
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