An analysis of Palo Alto-based Silicon Valley Mobility makes forecasts for the adoption of self-driving technology. The analysis included several factors including:
- Already known or widely assumed market launch dates for Level 3 to 5 automation
- Market penetration curves from other innovation areas (automotive, mobile devices…)
- S-curves that describes typical adoption characteristics
The left diagram shows that the three autonomous driving levels L3, L4, and L4 are going to converge between 2040 and 2045. According to Silicon Valley Mobility-CEO Sven Beiker this totally makes sense as L3 and L4 are just steps on the way to full L5 autonomy.
We have already posted in the past estimates for the timeline of the adoption of autonomous driving from different other sources and Think Tanks.
This article has also been published in German.